Football Betting Markets
In this article we’re going to list the best and worst football betting markets so hopefully you’ll gain some useful info about betting and betting markets.
Best Football Betting Markets
For many years there were restrictions placed on betting in singles on football matches. Customers could back three away teams in a treble and the minimum number of teams in an accumulator including a home team was five. Singles were only allowed on matches shown live on television. Bookmakers always prefer multiple bets as they have more chances of the bet losing which means betting in the three way match result market for a football match is a good bet.
Asian handicaps are so named because they were invented in Asia and are the most accurate representation of a team’s chances of winning a football match. A handicap is designed to attract two-way money when there is a significant favourite and underdog. Asian handicaps refine the concept by offering quarter and half goal lines with stakes split between being returned and staked. Huge sums are bet on Asian handicaps for matches in the English Premier League and odds are highly responsive.
Both Teams To Score
Both teams generally score in about 58% of matches in the English Premier League which translates into odds of 8/11 or 1.72 in decimal format. The last five fixtures are the best guide to assessing the likelihood of both teams scoring in a match. Home and away records refine the research and some informative trends can be found and used to make betting decisions in the both teams to score market. However, betting on a team to win and both teams to score involves too many variables.
The total goals odds are usually expressed for under or over a specified number or in three bands. Punters have a better chance of landing a winning bet in a two-way rather than a three-way market. When there are only two options in a bet bookmakers apply a lower % margin per possible outcome. Taking the under/over option is an either/or binary bet which is always better for the gambler than markets with three or more potential results. Comprehensive statistics can be used to identify betting opportunities in the total goals market.
This is a multiple bet involving teams to win the four main leagues in England but could be extended to include the Scottish leagues and other leagues around the world. This acca provides the potential for a life-changing win from a small stake. The selected teams can be backed win or each way and the place terms are usually one quarter the odds, first four places. Outright markets for each league are updated after each set of matches and the odds can move in favour or against the original prediction. Leicester won the Premier League in England in 2015-2016 at odds of 5,000/1 which would provide a massive boost to a four team season long acca. Ahead of each new season there is plenty of analysis of each team’s prospects and the most likely winners are identified.
Worst Football Betting Markets
Some bookmakers offer acca insurance which means stakes are returned for one losing selection in a multiple of five teams re more. Predicting the outcome of one close match can be tough but getting five right is a difficult task. Doubles, trebles and four folds are popular but big money can be won for accumulators involving at least five selections. Bookmakers like this type of bet as they have several chances to get the bet beat and therefore not have to pay any winnings. The acca insurance only makes the bet marginally easier and only the stake is returned but not the stake multiplied by the ongoing odds.
The most popular league for football match accumulators is the English Premier League. Statistically about 30% of fixtures are drawn but customers prefer to include a team to win in their accas. The draw is always under backed but finding one to put in an acca is virtually impossible. The temptation is to pick five home bankers in a multiple bet but one result often lets the bet down but at least with acca insurance stakes will be returned. Five always would be lucrative as the following illustrates when each way team is 3/1 (4.0) to win their match:
£10 5 team acca = (4.0 x 4.0 x 4.0 x 4.0 x 4.0 -1 x £10) = £10,230.00
Having the stake returned for one loser is scant consolation for missing out on winnings of over £10K. Accas are bad bets despite the potential for a life changing win for a relatively small stake. The strike rate on singles will obviously be much higher and betting in singles is a good strategy to gradually build a bank and continue to bet. Football matches often produce shock results and with a multi-team acca there are more chances for the bet to wrong so three teams should be the maximum in any acca.
The first scorer in a match is subject to too many vagaries and variables to make this nothing other than a poor football betting market. Bookmakers use statistics to frame their prices but profit margins make winning over time almost impossible. The strikers are always shortest in this market because they score most goals but there could be injury concerns or poor scoring records against the opposition. Strikers are more likely to score in open play but set pieces open up this market. Defenders will move into the penalty area when their team has a corner kick or free kick in the attacking third. At any one time 20 players could score the first goal in a match and bookmaker’s margins make the first scorer market one of the worst in football betting. Own goals do not count but some bookmakers include own goals in their odds for the first scorer. Customers can also bet on the last scorer in a match and the odds equate to the first scorer market.
Correct score betting is fraught with danger but on first glance the odds on offer are attractive. However, in compiling a book bookmakers write in a big margin which does not seem apparent due to the seemingly generous odds. The correct score in a football match is subject to too many variables to make it a good bet. Bettors are basically guessing and even statistics do not provide a reliable guide. When a team have a match won they can drop a level and concede a consolation goal. A 3-0 correct score winner can suddenly become a 3-1 loser if there is a late goal. Some teams may continue to attack and convert a 3-0 lead at half time into a 6-0 victory. Scoring additional goals improves goal difference but a convincing win only earns the same number of points as from a hard fought close victory. A team with a clear advantage in the scoring may relax with the job done and that can make predicting the correct score of a match a tough call. Late goals have a habit of messing up bets that looked like winning. Goalless draws are rarely backed but about one in 10 matches have no goals.
If the first scorer and correct score bets are not recommended a scorecast bet is even less likely to be profitable over a sustained period of time. This bet combines the first scorer and correct score elements in a combination bet. However, bets are not settled at the combined odds of both things to happen because they are related. If a player scores the first goal his team are much more likely to win the match and produce correct scores in their favour. Odds are reduced to accommodate this scenario but the adjustment is too big. Scorecast odds do not reflect probabilities but customers like the bets because the odds seem generous when in fact they are the opposite. Team loyalty means many bettors will back a winning score for their team combined with a favourite player scoring the first goal. If there are no goals in a match score cast bets are lost and on average goalless matches account for 10% of Premier League fixtures.
Half Time/Full Time
When there is a big favourite in a football match the temptation is to get better odds by backing them to be leading at half-time and the end of the match. An early goal for the underdog spoils many bets and a draw at half time also makes bets losers. The better teams may take the first half to impose their dominance which means they could win the match from behind or tied scores at half time. A team could take an early lead into the break and concede a late equaliser to prevent the double result. The most popular score in a football match is one and more goals are scored in the second half. These features of football make the half time/full time bet difficult to win.
We hope that you got useful tips from our football betting markets guide. In case you’d like to learn more about general football rules, click on the link.